2024 Presidential Projections 538 Predictions. Presidential approval ratings are also now dragged down by political and ideological polarization, with a shrinking share of the opposing party that any candidate can win over. Fivethirtyeight’s favorability ratings of vice president kamala harris, in combination with a likely voter weight, and allocation of undecided voters were used to determine the expected vote share for the candidates in the.
It is current as of the map timestamp. Even as joe biden’s presidential candidacy teetered and polls showed him clearly losing to donald trump, the election forecasting site 538 was still estimating that.